Stocks and Stumbles: Thoughts and Trades
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Best Investing, Trading and Economics Books
Michael Burry Recommendations Other Interesting Books Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb A fun book about fooling yourself with pattern seeking. Wasn’t really a big fan of the trading strategy that came out of this book, but it is an entertaining way to understand risk management. Dao of Capital by Mark Spitznagel Mark Spitznagel was…
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The 2025 Stock Market Is Teetering: Why Volatility Is Set to Rise
The market has been churning near 600 for several weeks now, and I expect volatility to increase significantly—at least for the first 100 days of the Trump presidency. Key Risks Driving Market Instability A House of Cards Waiting for a Black Swan With an overvalued stock market, geopolitical instability, and economic uncertainty fueled by unpredictable…
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Stock Pick: Long REI
Long at 1.33 A classic pure value play. REI is closed at 1.32 Price/Book: 0.31 DCF: 8.60 Downside risk based on 1 year Monte Carlo: -0.24 RR: 1:19.73
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Stock Pick: Long CNDT
Long $3.91 Deep value pick. CNDT is an information tech company, selling business solutions to a variety of industries. Carl Ichan used to hold a 10% position (132m) that was bought back by Conduent in June 2024. DCF: 10.43 P/B: $0.82
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Stock Pick: Long BTE
Long at: $2.44 Why I like BTE P/B: .48 DCF: $7.02 – $13.68 Downside Risk:-14% to -42% Upside Potential:+96% to +460% Given its book value and DCF range, BTE appears to have more upside than downside risk at current levels.
Check out my book recommendations?